Lake Minnetonka Real Estate Market: 2026 Year-to-Date (So Far)

Lake Minnetonka Real Estate Market: 2026 Year-to-Date (So Far)

If Lake Minnetonka real estate had a theme so far this year, it’s this: buyers are selective, great homes still move, and the market is rewarding smart pricing more than ever. We’re only a few weeks into 2026, but between the latest “rolling 12-month” local data and early-year activity, we can already see the shape of the season ahead.

The big picture: Lake Minnetonka is still a high-demand market—just more “strategic”

The most recent Lake Minnetonka Area Local Market Update (data sourced from NorthstarMLS) shows that 2025 ended with more inventory coming online and prices holding strong overall, even as time-to-sell stretched a bit.

Here’s what stood out in the Rolling 12 Months (2025 vs 2024) for the Lake Minnetonka Area:

• New listings: 1,590 (+13.7%)

• Closed sales: 989 (+5.2%)

• Median sale price: $757,500 (+15.6%)

• Average sale price: $1,079,770 (+3.9%)

• Days on market: 66 (+13.8%)

• Months supply: 2.5 (-10.7%)

That combination tells a pretty clear story: demand is still healthy, prices stayed firm, and inventory is not “flooding” the market—but buyers have enough choice to slow down and negotiate when a property feels overpriced or compromised.

Early 2026 momentum: fewer showings + fewer accepted offers (seasonal, but notable)

Looking at early-year activity across the Twin Cities region (which tends to preview what we feel locally as Lake Minnetonka ramps up), the latest weekly report (published February 9, 2026, for week ending January 31) showed:

• New listings: down 16.3% year-over-year (to 886)

• Pending sales: down 15.6% year-over-year (to 591)

• Inventory: essentially flat to slightly down (-0.4%)

This lines up with what many buyers and sellers are feeling: it’s active, but not frantic—and serious buyers are waiting for the right home, not just any home.

Mortgage rates have also been hovering in the low 6% range, which helps, but doesn’t completely erase affordability pressure—especially in higher price tiers.

The luxury/lakeshore angle: longer timelines, more negotiation

For Lake Minnetonka lakeshore specifically, January reflected a dynamic we’re seeing more often in premium segments:

• 5 lakeshore sales in January

• Average sale price: ~$3.74M

• Average days on market: ~154 days

• Average buyer discount: ~10%

Translation: well-positioned luxury still sells, but buyers are taking their time, doing deeper comparisons, and expecting value (or concessions) when a home isn’t perfectly aligned with the market.

What this means if you’re buying in 2026

You have leverage—but only on the homes that give it to you.

What’s working for buyers right now:

• Negotiating when a home is dated, oddly laid out, or priced ahead of the comps

• Watching for days-on-market opportunities (especially above $1M+)

• Being ready to move quickly when a home is A+ location + A+ condition + correctly priced

What this means if you’re selling in 2026

Your pricing strategy matters more than your “dream number.”

What’s working for sellers right now:

• Pricing that matches the moment (and doesn’t assume 2021 urgency)

• Clean prep: staging, lighting, paint, and “easy yes” presentation

• Strong marketing that highlights lifestyle + location (Lake Minnetonka is emotional—buyers buy the feeling)

When homes are overpriced, buyers wait. When they’re positioned right, they still move.

My read on the rest of the year (from here)

As we move from winter into spring, the market will likely shift in two ways:

1. More listings hit the market (seasonally)

2. Buyers return, but remain price-sensitive and comparison-driven

Lake Minnetonka is still Lake Minnetonka—scarcity, lifestyle, and long-term desirability do a lot of heavy lifting here. But in 2026, the homes that win will be the ones that feel like the best value in their category, not just the nicest.